Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Devils Off-Season Analysis [July Edition]

After a week in the Bahamas, and taking a much needed break from writing all together, I have taken the time to put together the first of my two Off-Season analysis, starting first with the Devils.

When free-agency opened on July 1st, many Devils fans wondered if this would truly be the year they have hoped for throughout their team’s existence, the year they make a big splash in the free agent market.

The result, however, was a combination of both anticipation and shock.

Rather than adding a shooter from the blue line, something desperately needed for this offensively anemic franchise, they opted to address size at the center position and added some semblance of a power play threat.

To fulfill these two desires, the Devils looked towards former players rather than introduce new blood into the locker room.

First, the Devils re-acquired Brian Rolston. Rolston, who won a Stanley Cup with the Devils in 1995, just a year after being drafted, signed a four year deal worth over $20 million. The 6’2” winger has spent time with Boston, Colorado and most recently Minnesota since being traded by the Devils to the Avalanche in 1999. Rolston brings with him not only much needed size, leadership and experience, but also solid power play awareness as he will be looked upon to be the quarterback on the first power play unit.

Later in the evening on July 1st, the Devils made a surprising move in re-acquiring center Bobby Holik. Holik left the Devils in 2002, signing with the rival New York Rangers to chase a larger contract. The move failed miserably and Holik was traded by the Rangers before his third season with the squad to the Thrashers, where he as spent the last few seasons.

This move came to a shock for many fans, if not simply for the animosity felt by most for his jumping ship for the Rangers, but for the plummeting in Holik’s skills as his age increases. Now 37, Holik is signed for one season, presumably to take one more shot at winning the Cup before retiring.

The major question mark which the Devils still need to address is brining in not only size, but experience to a very small and very young defensive unit.

Passing on Jason Smith was a great move by Lou Lamoriello. Smith has phenomenal leadership capabilities, but his speed is a massive question mark and his age also would present a frailty possibility as well.

Keeping Bryce Salvador is a questionable move, but does have the potential to pay immediate dividends, if he can stay healthy. Salvador was acquired at the trading deadline for Cam Janssen, aka the equivalent of a bag of pucks. He was only able to play 8 regular season games, however, and was limited in the playoffs as well. Salvador is not an offensive threat, but he is a physical player who knows how to throw the body around. He will play a key role, as will Holik, in ensuring that players like Sean Avery do not harass Martin Brodeur on a regular basis.

The Devils have solidified their front four lines, but they need to make a move to address the lack of an offensive threat on the blue line. This will not be an easy task to achieve as they have been in search of a one since the loss of Scott Neidermyer in 2004. Former Devil and current Red Wing Brian Rafalski was looked upon to shoulder the burden of Neidermyer’s departure but that plan never fully worked out as planned.

Now with both players with other squads, Paul Martin looks to be the most viable offensive threat in the defense. Andy Greene has shown glimmers of offensive capabilities during the playoffs in 2007 and briefly in 2007-2008, but never caught fire. The same holds true for Johnny Oduya and Mike Mottau.

Oduya, however, has shown the most offensive promise behind Martin. During the home stretch of the 07-08 season, Oduya showed an awareness for joining rushes and even tallied a pair of goals in one game, including a diving goal that rivaled the brilliance of Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin.

With a little over a month before training camp opens up for the Devils, expect a move or two, but not a big splash. The Devils do have a few NHL ready prospects who could be chips in a major deal, but with Lou Lamoriello at the helm, it is unlikely they will be dealt.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Potential Offensive Targets

Marian Hossa - RW - Pittsburg Penguins/Atlanta Thrashers
'07-'08 salary: $7,000,000
Now, before you go and say "oh of course he made the list, he's on every one's wish list," hear me out. Thefourthperiod.com is reporting by way of the Bergan Record, that Marian Hossa is a potential target for the Devils when noon rolls around tomorrow, July 1st. By now, everyone knows Hossa's credentials, so i wont waste time nor space typing them all out.

I do like the fact that a respected New Jersey paper is saying that Hossa is a target for the Devils. I am, however, keeping a level head about the possibility as minimal due to a few factors. First, as has been stated in the article and in other places, New Jersey is a synonymous as a defensive minded squad. Brent Sutter is trying to transition the team into a new hybrid offensive minded style, but they're a dire work in progress. With that being said though, who better to help speed up the transition than an offensive gem such as Hossa? Secondly, the Devils, and more specifically General Manager Lou Lamoriello, NEVER EVER make the obvious moves that the fans hope for. He'll pull out some random signing who turns into a diamond in the rough. But, in recent years, those jewel quests have come up empty. Could this finally be the year when the Devils make a big splash?
Probability of Happening: 15%

Kyle Wellwood - C/W - Toronto Maple Leafs
'07-'08 salary: $950,000
Earlier this morning, I began writing about Wellwood as a potential free agent signing for the Devils. Wellwood is a solid forward, when healthy. In 06-07, he showed the signs of greatness by tallying 42 points in 45 games. His season, however, was cut short thanks to a sports hernia. Injuries plagued a below average 07-08 campaign, in which he played over half the season at 59 games, but tallied only 21 points. Around 230 PM today [June 24], Wellwood was placed on waivers by the Leafs along with Andrew Raycroft.

I think Wellwood, when healthy, is a spectacular player with great vision and above average speed. His tendency to be injury prone is a concern, but if you played for Toronto over the past few years, wouldn't you want to find a reason to not be on the ice too? The Devils should take a chance at him, 1 year at $1 million per could be a starting point to allow him to prove to the team he could remain healthy for an entire season.
Probability of happening: 0%
UPDATE 6/25: Wellwood was claimed today by Vancouver. They now hold his rights until July 1st, where he will become a Restricted Free Agent if he is not made an offer by the Canucks. If the Canucks do not make an offer [highly unlikely], Wellwood would become an Unrestricted Free Agent.
UPDATE 7/1: Wellwood is officially a member of the Canucks. Signing a 1 year deal worth just under $1 million.


Miroslav Satan - RW - New York Islanders
'07-'08 salary: $3,000,000
Satan was third on the Isles last season in points with 41. Considering how horrendous the Islanders offense was last season, Mike Comrie lead the team with 49, Satan's performance was not awful. In the 3 years he spent on Long Island, he amassed 66, 59 and 41 points, in order. He became expendable in Buffalo when he refused to get along with teammates in the club house but did not experience the same level of being disgruntled with the Islanders.

He should be accepting a contract lower than the $3 million he made last season. His point totals falling and his age, 33, is a good reason for his contract offers to come in under what he was accustomed to on the free spending Islanders under new owner Charles Wang. He hasn't regained the power play prowess that he had towards the end of his tenure with the Sabres, adding to the reasons for lower pay. I could see the Devils making an offer for some veteran experience, if not simply for the marketing rights and fun that could be had with having a guy who's jersey will say SATAN on the back of a New Jersey Devils jersey. Its too perfect.
Probability of happening: 20%


Brian Rolston - RW - Minnesota Wild
'07-'08 salary: $2,432,000
No question that Rolston is one of the most important individuals on the Wild roster. He is the only player who was captain multiple times during the season, Rolston has turned down his most recent offer from the Wild, indicating he will opt to become a free agent on July 1st. Since joining the Wild, Rolston has seen his stats go from career highs [79] to matching his numbers when he played with the Boston Bruins [64, 59], all in consecutive years. Even with 59 points, Rolston would have ranked second on the Devils last season, falling behind only Zach Parise

Rolston is due for a moderate raise for his performances over the past 3 years. His ability to amass points in a defensive system that the Wild have makes him even more appealing on the open market. The downside on Rolston is his age. At 35, the question of how many years does he have left in his legs, and how much are teams willing to pay out for that daunting question. While many sites are suggesting that Rolston can fetch upwards of $4 million per season, I think the Devils should offer no more than $3.5 million because of Rolston's age and possible declining ability, if they make a run at him at all.
Probability of happening: 25%
UPDATE 6/30: Rolston's rights have been traded to the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning, who earlier today signed Ryan Malone and Gary Roberts, look to be in the get fixed quick mode under new coach Barry Melrose. Obviously, Tampa has until midnight to get a deal with Rolston done but if the Malone/Roberts deal is any precursor, this deal will be done, fast.
UPDATE 7/1: Rolston has told the Lightning that he will explore free agency. It has also been rumored that there are at least 10 offers on the table for him.
UPDATE 7/1: Rolston has signed with New Jersey, 4 years $20.25 million.

Darcy Tucker - LW - Toronto Maple Leafs
'07-'08 salary: $3,000,000

I have heard through both fan sites and a few of my sources that Lamoriello is interested in Tucker. While its nice to hear he actually has a game plan to start dipping into the free agent market, it bothers me that the only "big" name I have come across him being interested in is Tucker. The 33 year old scored 34 points, 18 of which were goals, for the Leafs last season.

Now, I'm not going to go on another Leaf bashing tirade that i had done with the Wellwood write-up, but I will point out this key fact: his 18 goals were 3rd on the Leafs, and would have been 5th on the Devils. With that being said, I like the thought of Tucker on the Devils. He's a pain in the rear like Janssen was, but he also has some semblance of offensive awareness.

Tucker is undoubtedly going to have to take a pay cut this season. The $3 million that he made last year was too much for the overhauling Leafs, and could be viewed as too much by other teams for a player of his age and a peaks-and-valleys career in terms of points totals. His stats have declined the past 3 seasons, but if the trend holds true, is due for an increase in '08-'09. I'd offer up 2 years, $2,500,000 per and if the money is to his liking but length isn't, I'd contemplate the extra year.
Probability of happening: 0%
UPDATE 7/1: Tucker signed with Colorado, 2 years, $4.5 million.

Potential Defensive Targets

This will be an ongoing article from now until at least July 1st. I will try to break down which free-agents I believe the Devils should pursue this summer.

Brian Campbell - D - Buffalo Sabres/San Jose Sharks
'07-'08 salary: $1,750,000

Campbell is the #1 defensive free agent who will be available on the market this summer. He is also due for a hefty pay raise from the $1,750,000 and it could approach well above the $6 million range. It kinda makes you wonder why the Sabres wouldn't at least make an offer at $5.5 million before the season started... But that is besides the point.

If the Devils could somehow land Campbell, it would do 2 things for the franchise. 1.) Show the fans that they are truly committed to getting back to the Stanley Cup finals. Fans have longed to hear a big name coming into Jersey at the peak of the career and are disappointed in settling with big names on the downside to retirement. 2.) It gives the Devils the replacement for Brian Rafalski they were looking for since he left for Detroit.

Campbell's price-tag is going to push him well out of the Devils' range, in my opinion. They have never been a team to go after the big name free agent, but it may be time to bring in some quality, proven veteran help for the upkeep on the franchise.
Chance of happening: 10%
UPDATE 7/1: Campbell has signed with the Chicago Blackhawks for 8 years, $56.8 million.


John Michael Liles - D - Colorado Avalanche
'07-'08 salary: $1,400,000
Liles should be right along side Campbell in the sought after defenseman department. A great puck moving defnseman who can easily be the go-to guy on the point on the power play lines. Liles tallied 6 goals, 26 assists during the '07-'08 season, including 20 points on the power play [5 goals, 15 assists]. Liles would be the prototypical replacement for Rafalski that the Devils have been seeking since last summer. Many people around the NHL felt that if the Avalanche made him available over the course of the season, he would have ended up with NJ. Many also speculated that last summer he would find his way to the devils via trade. [Says a lot for the amount of speculation out there, huh?]

Liless is a smaller defender at 5'10" and 185 pounds, but he makes up for the size difference in speed and awareness, just like Rafalski. Over his 4 seasons in the NHL, Liles averaged 40 points, including an average of 17 points on the power play. It will definitely take significantly more than he made last season. My guess it will be something between four and five million. The Devils should take the extra $6.4 million in cap space the NHL just opened up for every team and allocate some of those funds towards acquiring Liles.
Probability of Happening: 0%
UPDATE 6/30: Liles has resigned with Colorado: 4 yrs/$4+ million

Dimitri Kalinin - D - Buffalo Sabres
'07-'08 salary: $2,250,000

Kalinin was looked upon by the Sabres to fill the void after Brian Campbell departed, and it was not a role he was able to do. Kalinin is not going to blow you away with his speed, but he has great hockey sense. He's a very offensive minded defenseman and can handle the puck well, especially in the defensive zone. He does get a little nervous when forced to be a part of a fast paced offensive system like the Sabres had. He'd be a good fit for the Devils because their tempo is not nearly as fast as Buffalo's.

At6'3", 203, Kalinin would bring some much needed size to the Devils back line as well. Hurt in late October, Kalinin missed two months and played only 46 games, amassing a mere 8 points in the 07-08 campaign. He averages over 20 points a season, including a career best 34 in '03-'04 and another superb yeah in 06-07 with 29. Obviously, Kalinin should not be target #1 on the Devils radar but it is not unrealistic to see him as a fall back plan after Campbell and Liles are off the market. 2 years/$2.3 million per year could be a realistic offer for Kalinin.
Probability of happening: 40%
RESULT: Signed with the Rangers

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Devils Off-Season Part 1

As of today, there are two weeks until the free agent frenzy begins. The Devils have 4 Restricted Free Agents and 6 remaining Unrestricted Free agents. Here’s a look into the class:

UPDATED 7/1: contract results are listed below player summary

RFA’s

David Clarkson – RW – ‘07-‘08 salary: $555,000 – This one’s a no-brainer. Clarkson is a solid defensive forward. He worked very well with John Madden and Jay Pandolfo during the season and the group was one of the high points in a dismal playoffs for the Devils. Lately, he has gained comparisons to the likes of John MacLean or even line mate John Madden.
Prediction: Re-sign @ $725,000/yr
Result: re-signed @ $837,500/yr

Olli Malmivaara – D – ’07-’08 salary: n/a – Malmivaara is a decent defenseman who spent all but 2 games in ‘07-‘08 campaign in Lowell. The 26 year old at 6’7” is a large presence at the blue line. The former Chicago Blackhawks draft pick was signed by the Devils to add depth in their minor league system.
Prediction: Re-signed to 2-way contract.

Rod Pelley – C – ’07-’08 salary: n/a – Pelley played four years at Ohio State University, graduating in 2006. The 24 year old spent most of last season [58 games] with the big club, registering 2 goals and 4 assists. Pelly is on the fast track of success with the Devils, as he has significant experience with the team in his first two season of professional hockey, the points just need to follow.
Prediction: Re-signed @ $475,000

Barry Tallackson – RW – ’07-’08 salary: n/a – The University of Minnesota product is still trying find a break in the Devils roster. He does not have significant time in the NHL, 16 games over three seasons, and his AHL numbers are mediocre, an average of just over 23 points a season. At 25, it is not unreasonable to think that if he is re-signed, it could be his last contract with the Devils.
Prediction: Re-signed to a 2 year, 2-way deal

UFA’s

Arron Asham – RW – ’07-’08 salary: $700,000 – For a quick fix, Asham made good of his chance with the Devils, playing in 77 games tallying 10 points and 82 penalty minutes. An inexpensive winger, but no better than 3rd line material, Asham fit well into the Devils’ system for this year but will most likely not return as there are viable candidates for his position in Lowell.
Prediction: not re-signed.
Result: No contract tendered

Noah Clarke – LW – ’07-’08 salary: n/a - The southern California native, and Los Angeles Kings outcast, Clarke scored a goal in his only game with the Devils last season against the Florida Panthers. He played 20 games over three seasons with the Kings, but did put up solid numbers , 14 goals 17 assists, in 47 games with Lowell.
Prediction: At age 29, if he’ll take a minor league deal, I’d give it to him, but I don’t see him being an asset with the NHL team.

Richard Matvichuk – D – ’07-’08 salary: $1,368,000 – When a back injury ended Matvichuk’s 06-07 campaign, few thought it would be the last game he would play with the Devils. But with a new coach, a new system, a conflict with GM Lou Lamoriello, and the Devils salary cap issues, Matvichuk found himself relegated to the minors. In a situation very similar to Dan McGillis, Matvichuk was looked upon to be a leader for the minor league relegation.
Prediction: This one is another no-brainer. Matvichuk will not be back on the Devils next year. The question is, at 35, will he find another team?

Jay Pandolfo – RW - ’07-’08 salary: $836,00 – Lifelong Devil who has been a reliable winger on both the checking line as well as the penalty kill, Pandolofo was limited to only 54 games in ‘07-‘08 due to a groin injury, but had not missed a single game in the previous 3 seasons. He has never been a scoring threat, tallying his first hat-trick last season versus Tampa Bay, but has the ability to stifle even the most prolific scorers that the opposition can throw at the Devils. His character is something the Devils are in desperate need of and his intangibles cannot be lost.
Prediction: Re-signed @ $1,250,000/year. In my opinion, Pando is a must keep player.
Result: Re-signed @ $2,500,000 for 3 years.

Karel Rachunek – D - ’07-’08 salary: $1,400,000 – Last season, the thinking on Rachunek was right price right time. Still feeling the sting of losing Brian Rafalski to the Detroit Red Wings, the Devils picked up Rachunek along with Vitali Vishnevski to help add veteran leadership to a seemingly inexperienced defensive core. Injuries and an over abundance of defensemen limited Rachnek’s playing time during the ‘07-‘08 campaign.
Prediction: Departing. Another victim of the new offensive system, Rachunek is guaranteed to be playing elsewhere in ‘08-’09.

Bryce Salvador – D - ’07-’08 salary: $1,500,000 – Acquired at the trade deadline from St. Louis for bruiser Cam Janssen. This move was made early in the day, and left Devils fans thinking that the team had more in the works. 3 pm rolled around and nothing, 4 pm and still nothing, after 5:30 they knew there was nothing else. Salvador was another veteran added to an already jam-packed blue line corps. I didn’t understand the move in March but didn’t mind it for the low asking price. Many people loved cam, but he had no real role in Sutter’s system.
Prediction: My head’s telling me he’s gone, but my heart has a strong feeling that Lou is sold on him and he’ll come back above his value. I’m seeing a $2,000,000/per deal on this one.
Result: Re-signed for over his value, as predicted, $2,900,000 for a ridiculous 4 year deal.